PFAS compounds linked to cancer, high cholesterol, liver disease, kidney disease, fetal complications and other serious health problems

•  PFAS are a class of about 15,000 compounds used to make products resistant to water, stains, and heat. They are known as "forever chemicals" because they do not naturally break down, and they have been linked to cancer and high cholesterol. liver disease, kidney disease, fetal complications, and other other serious health problems.

Global Housing Crisis

• The lack of affordable housing worldwide is becoming a global crisis.
• An estimated 1.6 billion people, one-fifth of humanity lack access to adequate housing and basic services, according to the UN special report on the right to adequate housing, and this number could rise to 3 billion by 2030.

Moscow Bombing 3/22

 

•   March 22,2024 the attack on Moscow concert hall killed 133 people.
• March 29: Tajikistan's state security service detained nine people for suspected contact with the perpetrators of the Moscow concert hall killing.
• A faction of ISIL has claimed responsibility for the massacre. But Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have persistently claimed that Ukraine and the West had a role in the attack.
• Russia has announced it has evidence of connections between funds received in cash and cryptocurrency from Ukrainian people or nations to the perpetrators of this attack.

ISIS-K; understanding its Moscow bombing, threat on world and Economy

 

• Islamic State in Khorasan was founded in 2015 by breakaway members of the Pakistani Taliban.
• It includes people of Afghan and Pakistani origin, as well as Central Asians.
• The group is now at war with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which puts it under pressure.
• ISIS-K has the ability and intent to actually attack the West at this point.
• Several ISIS-K plots in Europe have been disrupted with a wave of arrests of people from Central Asia in Germany and the Netherlands in July.
• Russia, which invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s, crushed a rebellion in Muslim-majority Chechnya in the 1990s and backed the Syrian government against ISIS in the 2010s, has long been a target of jihadis, experts say.
• By attacking Russian targets, ISIS-K in part seeks to deter further Russian involvement in the Middle East, but also, such attacks provide high publicity for its cause and aim to inspire its supporters worldwide.
• Putin did not refer to the Islamic State during his Saturday address despite its claim of responsibility and instead asserted that the accused were moving toward Ukraine before they were caught, saying that a window was prepared for them from the Ukrainian side to cross the state border. Kyiv denied any involvement.
• Putin, in his speech, appeared to blame Ukraine by referring to Nazis, a label he used for the Ukrainian government. He made no reference to the Islamic State, nor did he address U.S. officials' assessment of the group's likely involvement.
• Others were more forthcoming in their accusations and threatened harsh retaliation.
• "Let's give the civilian population of Ukraine 48 hours to leave the cities and finally end this war with the victorious defeat of the enemy. Using all forces and means" Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev wrote Friday on Telegram.
• Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, dismissed the charges of Kyiv's involvement. Ukraine "certainly has nothing to do with the shooting/explosions," he wrote on X, adding that "everything in this war will be decided only on the battlefield"
• On Sunday, France raised its terrorism alert to the highest level over the Islamic State's claim of responsibility for the attack, Primine Minister Gabriel Attal announced.

ISIS - Terrorist Organization and its threat to global economy

• The Islamic State evolved out of the civil wars in Iraq and Syria. its emphasis is on consolidating and expanding its state. Its military presence is roiling Iraq and Syria and the threat it poses extends to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and especially Lebanon. 
• The Islamic State and thousands of foreign fighters under its banners pose a big threat to Middle East stability.
• The Islamic State’s social media efforts and overall appeal make it better able to mobilize “lone wolves” to attack in the West. Many of these individuals will have had little or no contact with the Islamic State as an organization, but they find its ideology and methods appealing and will act on their own. Some of these individuals may have preferred to go to Iraq and Syria, but Western disruption efforts make it easier for them to attack at home.
• Jihadist groups proliferated in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion, and many eventually coalesced around Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian Jihadist who spent time in Afghanistan in the 1990s and again in 2001.
• Initially, Zarqawi later on took on the name "Al Qaeda in Iraq" (AQI), and swore Bin Laden's loyalty. There is speculation that Zarqawi used Bin Laden's money to start his organization.
• Bin Laden got an affiliate and Zarqawi got Al Qaeda contacts. Al Qaeda was focused on U.S. targets while Zarqawi emphasized sectarian war, apostates Sunni Muslims, and eliminating Shi elite. Zarqawi died in 2006 from a U.S. air strike.
• AQI acted with brutality, beheading people and videotaping them, using terror for their publicity.
• In 2011 Baghdadi was the leader of the group. Zawahiri, Al Qaeda leader urged Iraqi jihadist to take part in the conflict and Baghdadi initially sent small numbers of fighters into Syria. 
• Syria was in chaos, and the Iraqi jihadists established secure bases of operations there,  raising money and recruiting new recruits. 
• In 2013 AQI became ISIS. At the same time, the Iraqi prime minister bolstered support among his Shia base, systematically excluding Iraqi Sunnis from power.
• Baghdadi's organization steadily shored up popular support, regained its legitimacy in Iraq, built a base in Syria, and replenished its ranks.
• The Syrian conflict revived the Iraqi jihadist movement, it also eventually led it to split with the Al Qaeda leadership.
• Zawahiri encouraged the Iraqi affiliate to move into Syria, but he also wanted to establish a separate group under separate command, with Syrians in the lead to give it a local face given his past doubts about AQI's loyalty and wisdom. Jabhat al Nusra was thus created.
• AQI group feared the group had simply gone native and become too independent and ignored the original leadership.
• In an attempt to reestablish Iraqi authority over the group, Baghdadi declared Jabhat al Nusra part of his organization.
• Nusra leaders balked, pledging a direct oath to Zawahiri as a way of retaining its independence.
• Zawahiri found this lack of unity frustrating and in late 2013 ordered Baghdadi to accept this decision and focus on Iraq.
• Baghdadi refused and declared Jabhat al-Nusra subordinate to him: a move that sparked a broader clash in which thoughts of fighters from both groups died.
• In February 2014, Zawahiri publicly disowned the group, formally ending their affiliation.
• In June 2014, Baghdadi's forces shocked just about everyone when they swept across Iraq, capturing not only large parts of Iraq's remote areas but also major cities like Mosul and Tikrit, important resources like hydroelectric dams and oil refineries, and several strategic border crossings with Syria.
• The group now calling itself the Islamic State officially declared the establishment of a caliphate in the territory under its control and Badhdadi was named the caliph.
• Now Baghdadi became a serious challenger to Zawahiri's authority. Thousands of foreign fighters flocked to Syria and Iraq to join the group.
• The primary target of the Islamic State has not been the United States, but rather "apostate" regimes in the Arab world namely, the Asad regime in Syria and the Abadi regime in Iraq.
• The Islamic State's long list of enemies includes the Iraqi Shia, the Lebanese Hizballah, the Yazidis (a Kurdish ethnoreligious minority located predominantly in Iraq) and rival opposition groups minority located predominantly in Iraq) and rival opposition groups in Syria (including Jabhat al-Nusra, the official Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria).
• And now that American military advisers are on the ground in Iraq supporting the Iraqi military, the U.S. military has ostensibly become a primary target for the Islamic State, but the lack of troops within range diminishes this danger.
• The Islamic State's ideology is to create a government where Muslims can live under Islamic law (or Islamic State's twisted version of it) and its strategy is to control territory, steadily consolidating and expanding its position. 
• Terrorism, in this context, is part of the revolutionary war: it is used to undermine morale in the army and police, force a sectarian backlash, or otherwise create dynamics that help conquest on the ground. But it is an adjunct to a more conventional struggle.
• In territory it controls, the Islamic State uses mass executions, public behadings, rape, and symbolic crucifixion displays to terrorize the population into submission and purify the community and at the same time provides basic (if minimal) services: the mix earns them some support, or at least acquiescence due to fear, from the population.
• A decade ago Zawahiri chastised the Iraqi jihadists for their brutality, correctly believing this would turn the population against them and alienate the broader Muslim community, and he has raised this issue in the current conflict as well. 
• Al Qaeda recommends proselytizing in the parts of Syria where its affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra holds sway, trying to convince local Muslims to adopt Al Qauda's views rather than forcing them to do so. 
• The Islamic State's lesson from Iraq, somewhat incredibly is that it was not brutal enough.
• After 9/11, Al Qaeda began to create affiliates or forge alliances with existing groups, expanding its range but at the same time exposing its brand to the misdeeds of local groups, as happened in Iraq.
• As part of its competition with the Islamic State, Al Qaeda has stepped up affiliation, establishing relationships with groups in the Caucasus, Tunisia, and India.
• The Islamic State is playing this game too, and wherever there is a call to jihad, there is rivalry. 
• Afghanistan, Algeria, Libya, Pakistan, Sinai, Yemen, and other Muslim lands are part of the competition.
• In Yemen, AQAP has exploited the chaos there to take territory, freeing imprisoned militants and seizing arms. 
• In Syria, Al Qaeda's affiliate Jabhat al Nusra has cooperated with other groups to take Idlib, an important advance, as well as other gains.
• The Islamic State has gained support from a number of important jihadist groups. Boko Haram in Nigeria and Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in Egypt both formally pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and are now considered official affiliates or provinces of the Islamic State; as of March 2015, the Islamic State has formally recognized seven provinces, including in Libya, from whence many of its foreign fighters hail, and in Yemen, where it is now in direct competition with Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
• In March, Islamic State supporters in Yemen bombed Houthi mosques, playing on the sectarian war narrative, AQAP immediately issued a statement and disavowed any involvement in the mosque bombings.
• The Islamic State often exaggerates its own prowess and role to the point of absurdity.
• By taking on the Islamic State label, local groups seem to want to attach themselves to a brand that has caught the attention of jihadists worldwide.
• They are more likely to embrace the Islamic State's barbarous tactics like beheadings as well as its sectarian orientation.
• In Afghanistan and Yemen, Islamic State-oriented groups have brutally attacked these countries Shia.
• Policy Implications and Recommendations
• Political reform in such countries with quality of government as well as the amount of control of a government matters.

TSMC

Layoffs

•  With tech layoffs at their highest since the 2001 dot-com crash, the job hunt is getting harder and many in the industry are being forced to settle for pay cuts if they can find a new gig at all.
• Since the start of the year, more than 50,000 positions have been slashed at over 200 tech companies.
• In 2023, more than 260,000 workers across nearly 1,200 tech companies lost their jobs.
• Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have all taken part in the downsizing in 2024, along with ebay, Unity Software, SAP, and Cisco. 
• PayPal announced in January 2024 that it was eliminating 9% of its workforce, or about 2,500 jobs.
• In January 2024, Google eliminated several hundred positions across its hardware, central engineering, and Google Assistant teams. In 2023, the company cut 12,000 jobs or roughly 6% of its full-time workforce.

Global Oil Pipelines

•  More than 24,000 km of new oil pipelines are under development around the world, a distance equivalent to almost twice the Earth's diameter.
• The projects, led by the US, Russia, China and India, are dramatically at odds with plans to limit global warming to 1.5C or 2C.
• The oil pumped through the pipelines would produce at least 5bn tonnes of CO2 a year if completed, equivalent to the emissions of the US, the world's second-largest polluter.
• About 40% of the pipelines are already under construction, with the rest in planning.
• Global carbon emissions must drop by 50% by 2030 to keep on track with internationally agreed targets for limiting global heating.
• The developers of the 10,000km of pipelines in construction stand to lose up to $75bn if action on the climate crisis prevents the new pipelines being fully used, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
• Russia, which is facing oil and gas boycotts from the west over the war in Ukraine and wants to increase exports to India and China, is developing 2,000km of new pipelines.
• Regionally, sub-Saharan Africa is leading the world in development, with 2,000km of oil pipelines already under construction and an additional 4,500 km proposed.
• The projects include the controversial East African crude oil pipeline, which will transport oil drilled from a national park in Uganda to an export terminal on the coast of Tanzania.
• For governments endorsing these new pipelines shows an almost deliberate failure to meet climate goals.
• Despite climate targets threatening to render fossil fuel infrastructure as stranded assets, the world's biggest consumers of fossil fuels, led by the US and China, are doubling down on oil pipeline expansion.
• The oil industry enjoyed record profits in the last year and is using this moment of chaos and crisis to push ahead with a massive expansion of oil pipeline networks.
• The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, told world leaders gathered in New York "The fossil fuel industry is killing us, and leaders are out of step with their people, who are crying out for urgent climate action."
• The world's biggest fossil fuel firms are planning a score of carbon bomb oil and gas projects that would drive the climate past the temperature targets with catastrophic global impacts.
• In May 2021, the International Energy Agency said new oil and gas fields were incompatible with the world remaining within relatively safe limits of global heating.
• Oil spills have devastated communities and ecosystems, obliterated wildlife and plants and contaminated the drinking water of millions of households and businesses and they happen much more than reported.
• Since 2001, there have been almost 700 reported incidents of serious pipeline failure. While thousands of oil spills happen in U.S. waters every year, only 5% were detected by pipeline sensors between 2002 and 2012.
• In Louisiana, where there are enough pipelines to encircle the Earth twice the state's Department of Environmental Quality has drastically reduced its enforcement staffing, and the compliance officers who remain continue to work with insufficient data. 
• As per the latest report published by Kings Research, the Global Oil and Gas Pipeline Market was recorded at USD 23.67 billion in 2022 and is estimated to grow to USD 53.54 billion by 2030, exhibiting a 6.50% CAGR over the forecast period of 2023-2030.
• The market has experienced substantial expansion in response to the rising energy demand and exploration of untapped oil and gas reserves. This has made the development of efficient transportation infrastructure imperative.
• Consequently, nations globally have made significant investments in pipeline initiatives to establish a dependable and economically viable method for transporting these valuable resources. 
• An oil and gas pipeline is a system of linked pipes that moves gas and oil from production sites to storage facilities, refineries, and finally, end users.
• These pipelines are essential to the global energy industry as they make it possible to move these priceless commodities over long distances in an effective and reliable manner.
• Usually constructed of steel, oil, and gas pipelines can travel thousands of kilometers over deserts, mountains, and oceans. 
• The pumps and valves in these pipelines control the flow and pressure of the gas and oil, guaranteeing a consistent supply to fulfill global energy needs.
• The delivery of goods that run our everyday lives would be extremely difficult for the global oil and gas business without these pipelines.
• August 2023: In response to the growing number of severe accidents in the global oil and gas industry resulting from damaged pipelines, researchers at the University of Houston began developing an autonomous robot. This robot was being built to identify potential structural failures and pipeline leaks during subsea inspections, introducing a transformative technology that enhances the safety and cost-effectiveness of the inspection process. 
• Simultaneously it contributes to the protection of subsea environments, mitigating the risk of disasters.
• The United States witnesses thousands of oil spills in its waters annually due to various causes. 
• While many of these spills are small, spilled crude oil can still inflict harm on delicate areas like beaches, mangroves, and wetlands.
• Larger spills often involve pipelines as the main source. As per the BOEM (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management), 514 offshore pipeline-related oil spills were documented between 1964 and 2015, with 20 of them involving spill volumes exceeding 1000 barrels.
• On the basis of type, the crude oil pipeline segment dominated the global oil and gas pipeline market in 2022. 
• This dominance is attributed to the utilization of these pipelines for transporting unrefined oil from extraction sites to refineries or storage facilities. 
• The crude oil pipelines play a vital role in ensuring the smooth operation of the oil sector as it guarantees a consistent flow of raw oil for refining and distribution.
• As emerging economies witness rapid industrialization and urbanization, their energy demands are growing simultaneously, resulting in a greater need for crude oil.
• The market is benefiting from advancements in pipeline technology, including the utilization of corrosion-resistant materials and enhanced inspection techniques. 
• In addition, the rising emphasis on the advancement or reviewable energy sources and the shift toward cleaner fuels has resulted in the incorporation of natural gas pipelines into renewable energy initiatives. 
• The global pipeline & process services market to record robust growth, accounting for $5.24 billion by 2030, backed by the surge in oil and gas exploration activities.
• The global oil and gas market is projected to reach USD $8,568.72 billion by 2030, driven by several factors such as rising demand for natural gas, favorable initiatives by governments and technological advancements.

Global Inflation

 

• J.P Morgan research forecasts global core inflation will remain sticky at around 3% in 2024.
• In the U.S. inflation has cooled significantly but still remains above target. Against a challenging growth backdrop, the road to lower inflation also looks bumpy in the UK and the Eurozone.
• In China, deflationary pressures will likely ease in 2024, with headline CPI inflation trending up modestly to 0.9 % year-over-year and core CPI inflation reaching 1.2%.
• In emerging markets (ex-China and Turkey), J.P. Morgan Research expects both core and headline inflation to decline by 100 basis points (bp) over the course of 2024.

Global Economic Challenges

1. Inflation and Economic Downturn 

• The inflation is increasing and this trend will likely continue. Many economies will stagnate or shrink.
• The IMF has forecast decreased global growth of 2.9 percent. The IMF cited rising risks of financial instability and recession.
• Companies can face inflation by establishing end-to-end, actionable visibility of spending by business process, function, cost category, and business unit, as well as reducing spending.

2. Supply Chain Security

• Supply chain security challenges began with COVID-related backlogs and have been made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and labor shortages due to the Great Resignation. This has made parts and products harder to obtain, as well as pushed prices up (e.g., energy, grains, computer chips, oil, and so on).

• According to a report by Accenture, supply chain issues could result in a potential €920 billion cumulative loss to the gross domestic product (GDP) across the Eurozone by 2023.

• Companies over-order to compensate for backlogs, which worsens the situation. 

3. Record Global Debt

• Global debt reaches a record $226 trillion
• Policymakers must strike the right balance in the face of high debt and rising inflation.
• In 2020, the largest one-year debt surge since World War ll, with global debt rising to $226 trillion as the world was hit by a global health crisis and a deep recession.
• Debt was already elevated going into the crisis, but now governments must navigate a world of record-high public and private debt levels, new virus mutations, and rising inflation.
• Borrowing by governments accounted for slightly more than half of the increases, as the global public debt ration jumped to a record 99 percent of GDP. Private debt from non-financial corporations and households also reached new highs.
• The debt suge amplifies vulnerabilities, especially as financing conditions tighten.
• Debt increases are particularly striking in advanced economies, where public debt rose from around 70 percent of GDP, in 2007, to 124 percent of GDP, in 2020. 
• Private debt, on the other hand, rose at a more moderate pace from 174 to 178 percent of GDP, in the same period.
• Public debt now accounts for almost 40 percent of total global debt, the highest share since the mid-1960s. 
• The accumulation of public debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the two major economic crises governments have faced - first the global financial crisis, and then the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The great financing divide: Debt dynamics, however, differ markedly across countries. Advanced economies and China accounted for more than 90 percent of the $28 trillion debt surge in 2020. These countries were able to expand public and private debt during the pandemic, thanks to low interest rates, the actions of central banks (including large purchases of government debt), and well-developed financial markets. 
• Most developing economies are on the opposite side of the financing divide, facing limited access to funding and often higher borrowing rates.
• Looking at overall trends, we see two distinct developments. In advanced economies, fiscal deficits soared as countries saw revenues collapse due to the recession and put in place sweeping fiscal measures as COVID-19 spread. 
• Public debt rose 19 percentage points of GDP, in 2020, an increase like that seen during the global financial crisis, over two years: 2008 and 2009. 
• Private debt, however, jumped by 14 percentage points of GDP in 2929, almost twice as much as during the global financial crisis, reflecting the different nature of the two crises. 
• During the pandemic, governments and central banks supported further borrowing by the private sector to help protect lives and livelihoods. Whereas during the global financial crisis, the challenge was to contain the damage from the excessively leveraged private sector.
• Emerging markets and low-income developing countries faced much tighter financing constraints, but with large disparities across countries.
• China alone accounted for 26 percent of the global debt surge. 
• Emerging markets (excluding China) and low-income countries accounted for small shares of the rise in global debt, around $1-$1.2 trillion each, mainly due to higher public debt.
• Both emerging markets and low-income countries are also facing elevated debt ratios driven by the large fall in nominal GDP in 2020. 
• Public debt in emerging markets reached record highs, while in low-income countries it rose to levels not seen since the early 2000s, when many were benefiting from debt relief initiatives.
• Difficult balancing act The large increase in debt was justified by the need to protect people's lives, preserve jobs, and avoid a wave of bankruptcies. If governments had not taken action, the social and economic consequences would have been devastating.
• But the debt surge amplifies vulnerabilities, especially as financing conditions tighten. 
• High debt levels constrain, in most cases the ability of governments to support the recovery and the capacity of the private sector to invest in the medium term.
• A crucial challenge is to strike the right mix of fiscal and monetary policies in an environment of high debt and rising inflation. 
• Fiscal and monetary policies fortunately complemented each other during the worst of the pandemic. 
• Central bank actions, especially in advanced economies, pushed interest rates down to their limit and made it easier for governments to borrow.
• Monetary policy is now appropriately shifting focus to rising inflation and inflation expectations. 
• While an increase in inflation, and nominal GDP, helps reduce debt ratios in some cases, this is unlikely to sustain a significant decline in debt.
•  As central banks raise interest rates to prevent persistently high inflation, borrowing costs rise. In many emerging markets, policy rates have already increased and further rises are expected. Central banks are also planning to reduce their large purchases of government debt and other assets in advanced economies—but how this reduction is carried out will have implications for the economic recovery and fiscal policy.
• As interest rates rise, fiscal policy will need to adjust, especially in countries with higher debt vulnerabilities. As history shows, fiscal support will become less effective when interest rates respond—that is, higher spending (or lower taxes) will have less impact on economic activity and employment and could fuel inflation pressures. Debt sustainability concerns are likely to intensify.
• The risks will be magnified if global interest rates rise faster than expected and growth falters. A significant tightening of financial conditions would heighten the pressure on the most highly indebted governments, households, and firms. If the public and private sectors are forced to deleverage simultaneously, growth prospects will suffer.
• The uncertain outlook and heightened vulnerabilities make it critical to achieve the right balance between policy flexibility, nimble adjustment to changing circumstances, and commitment to credible and sustainable medium-term fiscal plans. Such a strategy would both reduce debt vulnerabilities and facilitate the work of central banks to contain inflation.
• Some countries—especially those with high gross financing needs (rollover risks) or exposure to exchange rate volatility—may need to adjust faster to preserve market confidence and prevent more disruptive fiscal distress. The pandemic and the global financing divide demand strong, effective international cooperation and support to developing countries.

4. Growing Income Inequality 

• According to Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report, global private wealth surged to a historic $166.5 trillion in 2016, marking a notable 5.3% increase compared to 4.4 % the previous year.

• The private wealth in the Asia-Pacific region will outstrip that of Western Europe potentially reshaping the global economic and political landscape.

• British politician Sir Halford Mackinder, who famously asserted that "Unequal growth among nations tends to produce a hegemonic world war about every 100 years," there's a sobering reminder of the potential consequences of such disparities.

• According to a January 2017 Oxfam report, the richest 1% possessed as much wealth as the remaining global population. This trend has since escalated, with just eight individuals now holding assets equivalent to the wealth of 3.6 billion people.
• These growing disparities are reflected in family structure, neighborhoods, attitudes, and lifestyle. The top income earners pass on their status to their children, thus reducing overall social mobility and increasing social divisions along class as well as income lines. Since 1989, income inequality within countries has been rising.

5. Technology Driving Change in Jobs

• Over the last three decades, advanced economies have seen labor-intensive sector jobs move to emerging markets. 
• New technologies have made certain occupations obsolete. 
• According to UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), robots could take away two-thirds of jobs in developing countries.
• Today's five largest global companies are Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook. They employ around 720,000 people. A decade ago, the big five were completely different: Petrocina, Exxon Mobile, General Electric, China Mobile, and Bank of China. They employed around 1.3 million people. Today's five biggest companies are all technology companies. Their market capitalization is 30% higher than that of the top five a decade ago; they achieve that with a whopping 44% less staff. This has a large impact on labor markets and jobs. 
• According to McKinsey, 45% of the global working-age population is underutilized, either unemployed or underemployed. Unless there is a redirection of investment into labor-intensive productive sectors and retraining, the desired job creation may not happen, fueling unhappiness, unrest, and poplism.

6. Rising Protectionism

• G20 countries have become more protectionist. The total number of discriminatory protectionist measures implemented by G20 countries has increased over the past five years. The main driver has been the U.S. According to the Global Trade Alert report, had the United States been excluded, the total number of protectionist policy instruments imposed by the G20 would have been lower in 2017 than in 2016. The U.S. has implemented the most protectionist and trade-restrictive measures of its peer group, the European Union the least. This sounds counter-intuitive for a country that prides itself on an open economy, but it seems that it is Europe that is championing trade barrier reductions and the avoidance of protectionist measures.

7. Increasing Migration

• The recent refugee crisis in Syria and the resulting arrival of more than one million migrants in 2015-2016 in Germany presented a formidable challenge to political and social stability. 
• In addition to tougher checks on the EU’s external borders, and a controversial refugee pact with Turkey, the EU is investing more in the migrants’ countries of origin. 
• The refugees from Syria have been fleeing a brutal civil war. They are escaping violence, as many also are from Iraq and Afghanistan. 

8. Growing Influence of Social Media and the Post-truth World

•  Social media pose the final major challenge to international organizations. According to a recent analysis by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, 51% of people with online access use social media as a news source. Social media is the primary source for news for 44% of smartphone users in the U.S. and 38% in the U.K. Coupled with the proliferation of so-called fake news, which became so prominent in last year’s U.S. elections, as well as social media’s favoring of ever shorter and catchier messages, it is no wonder that many observers are saying we are living in a post-truth world.
• A recent BuzzFeed analysis of social media traffic in the run-up to the November 2016 U.S. elections found that top fake election news stories generated more total engagement on Facebook than the top election stories from the 19 major news outlets combined. These trends represent serious tests on many fronts, including combating terrorism and securing the proper functioning of democratic institutions. Fear, anger and despair enlist recruits for terrorism. They also create a more polarized social climate and the rise of extremism.

Reasons of Optimism

• Despite daunting challenges, there are reasons for optimism. At the European level, leaders have reviewed their commitment to addressing global and societal issues collectively. Two key factors have bolstered confidence in the European project: economic performance and unity. Recent data shows record employment levels in the euro area and EU, alongside increased investment and projected growth matching or surpassing that of the United States this year.
• Second, despite growing populism, Europe’s citizens have confidently stood for democracy, open borders, economic reforms, and more Europe. The results of the elections in the Netherlands and France bore witness to this positive trend among European societies. In spite of the recent electoral gains of an extreme right-wing party in Germany, the election outcome was again clearly pro-European. The continent appears in better shape today than it did after Brexit one year ago.
• Europe can offer lessons in regional integration that are relevant to other parts of the world. 
• The continued rise of Asian economies, as well as those in Latin America, presents new opportunities for strengthening international cooperation in many areas including finance, infrastructure, energy, education, climate change, and others.